In hybrid seed production, controlling cross-pollination is critical to achieve maximum kernel set and high levels of genetic purity. The objective of this project was to simulate the level of out-crossing resulting from adventitious pollen entering the seed field. To do so, we combined our kernel set model which calculates kernel numbers formed from inbred flowering dynamics with a new pollen dispersal model, which calculates pollen drift based on local weather conditions and pollen physical properties. Male and female flowering synchrony and detasseling were varied to provide a wide range for risk of out-crossing. Measured yields varied from 13.4 to 24.5 Mil kernels per ha, and measured out-crossing varied from 0.5 to 20 % as identified using molecular markers. The relationships between flowering dynamics, kernel yield, potential risk of out-crossing, and actual out-crossing percentages will be presented. The analysis provides a quantitative approach for defining the management strategies that will optimize seed production and genetic purity.
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